Monza 2-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Empoli meet at Brianteo in Serie B (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Monza at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Monza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Empoli away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Monza's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Empoli edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2025, ended Monza 1–1 Empoli — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 51% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 48% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.129 / defence 0.773 | Empoli attack 0.779 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Empoli's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Monza have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Empoli's projected output down. Data: built from Monza's last 37 games and Empoli's last 37.
Result probabilities: Monza 64% | Draw 25% | Empoli 11%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.55 | Draw 4.08 | Empoli 8.99. The model has a clear lean to Monza (64%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 64% | Draw 25% | Empoli 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Monza 1.82 / Empoli 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.129 / def 0.773 | Empoli attack 0.779 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Monza (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Empoli xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Monza vs Empoli kick off?
Monza vs Empoli kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Empoli?
Monza 2 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Monza vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Empoli part of?
Monza vs Empoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 64% chance of winning, Empoli a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Monza and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Monza vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 1.13x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.78x) against Monza's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 37 games and Empoli's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
64%
1.55
25%
4.08
11%
8.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Monza xG
Total xG
2.46
0.64
Empoli xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
8.99
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
2%
55.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Monza and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Monza and 0.64 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 75 games, going 25W 18D 32L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.95 PPG from 75 outings (15W 26D 34L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Monza against 0.95 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 15W 8D 14L across their last 37 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 37 away games (8W 8D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
Monza (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Monza vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Empoli in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 18D 32L in their last 75 games (1.24 PPG), while Empoli have gone 15W 26D 34L in their last 75 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Empoli away?
Monza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.43 PPG; Empoli away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won Empoli 3-0 Monza on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Monza
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 51%, Empoli 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Monza) and 57% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Empoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Monza's games and 60% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monza and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Monza's recent games and 57% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Monza's recent matches and 70% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Empoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brianteo, Regular Season - 38, as Monza and Empoli drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.64 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Empoli attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 64% | Draw 25% | Empoli 11%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 48%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.24 PPG, Empoli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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