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Poisson model rates Modena at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Modena host Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.73 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.973 / defence 0.981 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Modena games / 0 Vicenza Virtus games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Vicenza Virtus 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Modena (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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