Modena vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Modena) versus 1.12 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vicenza Virtus in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 62% and Vicenza Virtus 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 62% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.89 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.072 / defence 1.046 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Modena games / 7 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 52% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Vicenza Virtus 4.35. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Vicenza Virtus 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 52% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Modena 1.89 / Vicenza Virtus 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.072 / def 1.046 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Modena (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vicenza Virtus xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Modena vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Modena vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 52% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Modena and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Vicenza Virtus in?
Modena (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.07) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.98
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Modena xG
Total xG
3.10
1.21
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
3%
28.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Modena and 1.21 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Modena have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 4W 1D 3L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.25 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Modena and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Modena's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Modena's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Modena and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.