Sampdoria vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Carrarese at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.40 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Carrarese 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Carrarese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 40% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.32 xG and Carrarese 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / defence 1.083 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sampdoria games / 40 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 30% | Carrarese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sampdoria 1.32 / Carrarese 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.930 / def 1.083 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Carrarese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Carrarese part of?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 39% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sampdoria and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.93) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.42
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
Carrarese xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.18 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.12 PPG, Carrarese on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Carrarese away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.60 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Carrarese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Carrarese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 45%, Carrarese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 55% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Sampdoria's games and 65% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 55% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.