Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.12 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.57 for Benevento. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vicenza Virtus lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (7 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Benevento — key trading statistics (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 57% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 71% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.09 xG and Benevento 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.298 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 32% | Benevento 37%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Benevento 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 32% | Benevento 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.09 / Benevento 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 31% chance of winning, Benevento a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.84) and Benevento's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.75x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.17
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.32
1.23
Benevento xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.23 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Benevento have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Benevento 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 57%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Vicenza Virtus) and 43% (Benevento). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 43% of Benevento's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Benevento tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.