Modena vs Salernitana – Match Report

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Modena and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 16, as Modena and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.85 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Salernitana attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 58% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 45%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Salernitana's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights