Modena 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Modena at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Modena welcome Salernitana to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Modena — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Modena) versus 1.00 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

In-Play Profile

Modena in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Salernitana in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Salernitana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 45% | Salernitana 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.85 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.140 / defence 1.061 | Salernitana attack 0.737 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Modena games / 15 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 58% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Salernitana 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Modena (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Salernitana 50%.

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