Modena vs Salernitana – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.14x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.69
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Modena xG
Total xG
2.71
0.86
Salernitana xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
42.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Modena and 0.86 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.