Modena 1-2 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Padova.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Padova at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Modena — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Modena's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Padova stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Padova's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.40 PPG versus Padova's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Modena have won 0, Padova 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2026, ended Modena 0–2 Padova — a Padova win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Padova trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 42% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 42% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.40 xG and Padova 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.962 / defence 0.926 | Padova attack 0.823 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.111. Data: built from Modena's last 64 games and Padova's last 26.
Result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Padova 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.02 | Draw 3.53 | Padova 4.51. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Padova's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Padova 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Padova 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Modena 1.40 / Padova 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.962 / def 0.926 | Padova attack 0.823 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Modena (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Padova xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Padova FAQs
What time does Modena vs Padova kick off?
Modena vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Padova?
Modena 1 - 2 Padova.
Where is Modena vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Padova part of?
Modena vs Padova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 50% chance of winning, Padova a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Modena and Padova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Modena vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 64 games and Padova's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.53
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Modena xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Padova xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Padova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Modena and 0.85 for Padova, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 12W 7D 7L from 26 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 10L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Padova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Modena have managed 6W 3D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Padova
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Padova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Modena vs Padova Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Padova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Padova have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Padova away?
Modena's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.62 PPG; Padova away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Modena or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Padova in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2026. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
0
Draws
2
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Padova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Padova?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 0, Padova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Padova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Modena 1-2 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Padova 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Modena) and 38% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Padova in 31%; Padova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Padova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Padova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 38% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Padova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Modena's recent games and 38% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Padova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Modena's recent matches and 62% of Padova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.40 xG and Padova 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Padova outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Padova 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Padova 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Padova's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Padova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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