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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.22 xG and Monza 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Monza attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 36% | Draw 31% | Monza 33%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 49%, Monza 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights