Modena 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 36%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 26 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Monza (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Monza arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 49% | Monza 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.22 xG and Monza 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.012 / defence 0.999 | Monza attack 1.074 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.070. Data: 55 Modena games / 17 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 36% | Draw 31% | Monza 33%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Monza 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 36% | Draw 31% | Monza 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.22 / Monza 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.012 / def 0.999 | Monza attack 1.074 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Modena (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Monza xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Monza kick off?
Modena vs Monza kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Monza?
Modena 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Modena vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Monza part of?
Modena vs Monza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 36% chance of winning, Monza a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Monza in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.01) and Monza's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.07x) against Modena's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.24
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Modena xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Monza xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Modena and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Modena and 1.15 for Monza, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena's recent record stands at 18W 20D 17L from 55 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 29L across 55 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Modena have managed 10W 10D 7L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.96 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Monza in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 18W 20D 17L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 13D 29L in their last 55 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Monza away?
Modena's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.48 PPG; Monza away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Monza 1-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 63%, Monza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Modena) and 48% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Modena's games and 48% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Monza tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Monza in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.22 xG and Monza 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Monza attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 36% | Draw 31% | Monza 33%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 49%, Monza 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.