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Modena cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Mantova 3-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.45 xG and Mantova 1.09 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Mantova 26%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Mantova 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.17 PPG, Mantova 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights