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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Quarter-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.41 xG and Juve Stabia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 24%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.32 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights