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Poisson model rates Benevento at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Modena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 0 for Modena and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.21 xG and Modena 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Modena attack 0.968 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Modena games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 30% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Benevento 3 – 2 Modena • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Benevento 50% / Draw 50% / Modena 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 35% / draw 30% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 50% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Modena away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 30% | Modena 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Benevento 1.21 / Modena 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Modena attack 0.968 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benevento (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Modena kick off?
Benevento vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Modena part of?
Benevento vs Modena is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Modena a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benevento and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Modena?
• Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Benevento 3 – 2 Modena • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Benevento 50% / Draw 50% / Modena 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 35% / draw 30% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 50% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Benevento and Modena in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Modena away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Benevento vs Modena?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture