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Modena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Carrarese 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 49% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 25%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Carrarese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Carrarese's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.32 PPG, Carrarese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights