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Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.84 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Virtus Entella attack 0.60 / defence 1.22, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Virtus Entella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights