Mantova 1-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mantova face Virtus Entella.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Virtus Entella make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Mantova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Mantova have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Virtus Entella's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Virtus Entella's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Mantova, 1 for Virtus Entella and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Mantova 0–1 Virtus Entella — a Virtus Entella win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Virtus Entella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.84 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.094 / defence 1.102 | Virtus Entella attack 0.599 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Virtus Entella's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mantova's projected output up. Virtus Entella's attack rating of 0.599 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Mantova's last 70 games and Virtus Entella's last 32.
Result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.60 | Draw 4.06 | Virtus Entella 7.86. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (63%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mantova 60% (last 10 home games) | Virtus Entella 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Mantova 1.84 / Virtus Entella 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.094 / def 1.102 | Virtus Entella attack 0.599 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Mantova (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Virtus Entella FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Mantova vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Mantova 1 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Mantova vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Virtus Entella part of?
Mantova vs Virtus Entella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 63% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mantova and Virtus Entella will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Mantova vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.09) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.60x) against Mantova's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 70 games and Virtus Entella's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
63%
1.60
25%
4.06
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.57
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
49.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Virtus Entella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Mantova and 0.73 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 7D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (8W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Mantova against 1.06 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mantova's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.44 points per game from their last 16 away games (1W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
Mantova (Home) vs Virtus Entella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
❓ Mantova vs Virtus Entella Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Virtus Entella away?
Mantova's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.50 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Mantova and Virtus Entella, the earliest from September 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Mantova have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Virtus Entella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Virtus Entella?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 2, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Virtus Entella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Virtus Entella 0-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Virtus Entella?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 69%, Virtus Entella 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mantova) and 38% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Virtus Entella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Virtus Entella matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Mantova's recent matches and 38% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Virtus Entella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mantova's recent games and 38% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Virtus Entella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Mantova's recent matches and 62% of Virtus Entella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.84 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Virtus Entella attack 0.60 / defence 1.22, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Virtus Entella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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