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Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Sampdoria 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights