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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Modena cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Mantova 1-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.20 xG and Modena 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Modena attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 33% | Draw 36% | Modena 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.15 PPG, Modena 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights