Mantova 1-3 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Mantova take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Mantova, 1.40 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mantova, 1 for Modena and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Modena 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 51% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.20 xG and Modena 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.107 / defence 0.977 | Modena attack 1.113 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.073. Data: 41 Mantova games / 41 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 33% | Draw 36% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Modena 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Modena 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 33% | Draw 36% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Mantova 1.20 / Modena 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.107 / def 0.977 | Modena attack 1.113 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Modena xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Modena kick off?
Mantova vs Modena kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Modena?
Mantova 1 - 3 Modena.
Where is Mantova vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Modena part of?
Mantova vs Modena is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 33% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mantova and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 1W.
What form are Mantova and Modena in?
Mantova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.11x the league average against Modena's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.11x) against Mantova's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
36%
2.80
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Modena xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mantova and 1.17 for Modena, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova's recent record stands at 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 13L across 41 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Mantova against 1.27 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.32 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Modena in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Modena have gone 12W 16D 13L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Modena away?
Mantova's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.70 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Modena go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Modena have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Modena 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 45%, Modena 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Mantova) and 45% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mantova's recent matches and 55% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Mantova's recent games and 45% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Modena tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Modena in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Mantova 1-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.20 xG and Modena 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Modena attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 33% | Draw 36% | Modena 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.15 PPG, Modena 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.