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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Mantova 1-5 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.10 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.10 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.84 / defence 0.72, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Frosinone 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Frosinone 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights