Mantova 1-5 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mantova take on Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Mantova welcome Frosinone to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.40 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Frosinone and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Frosinone trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 57% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Frosinone 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.059 / defence 1.147 | Frosinone attack 0.845 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.140. Frosinone's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Mantova games / 42 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 34%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Frosinone 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 50% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 46% | xG Mantova 0.97 / Frosinone 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.059 / def 1.147 | Frosinone attack 0.845 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Frosinone xG
46%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Frosinone kick off?
Mantova vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Frosinone?
Mantova 1 - 5 Frosinone.
Where is Mantova vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Frosinone part of?
Mantova vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 28% chance of winning, Frosinone a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mantova and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Mantova and Frosinone in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.06x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.63
38%
2.62
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.08
1.10
Frosinone xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mantova and 1.10 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 14D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (11W 18D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.12 PPG, Frosinone on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mantova's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 11W 18D 13L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Frosinone away?
Mantova's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.62 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mantova's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone 5-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 48%, Frosinone 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mantova) and 29% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Frosinone in 33%; Mantova have failed to score in 29% of games; Frosinone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mantova's recent matches and 43% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mantova's recent games and 29% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Frosinone tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Mantova 1-5 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.10 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.10 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.84 / defence 0.72, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Frosinone 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Frosinone 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.