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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Frosinone.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Frosinone 3-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.08 xG and Frosinone 0.70 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 42% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 21%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 35%, Frosinone 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Frosinone 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights