🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Mantova welcome Frosinone to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 4W 3D 1L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.00 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

In-Play Data

Mantova trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Frosinone trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 47% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 35% | Frosinone 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.08 xG and Frosinone 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.831 / defence 0.973 | Frosinone attack 0.664 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Data: 17 Mantova games / 17 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 21%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.38 | Draw 2.63 | Frosinone 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 38% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights