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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 27, as Mantova and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.86 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.08 / defence 1.30 against Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 50% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 25%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.09 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights