Frosinone 5-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Frosinone welcome Mantova to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Frosinone — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Mantova and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Frosinone 5–1 Mantova — a Frosinone win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Mantova 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Mantova 52%). Note also that Mantova surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.59 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.227 / defence 0.885 | Mantova attack 1.113 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Data: built from Frosinone's last 75 games and Mantova's last 75.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.06 | Draw 3.54 | Mantova 4.30. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Frosinone 50% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Frosinone 1.59 / Mantova 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.227 / def 0.885 | Mantova attack 1.113 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Mantova kick off?
Frosinone vs Mantova kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Mantova?
Frosinone 5 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Frosinone vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Mantova part of?
Frosinone vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 48% chance of winning, Mantova a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.23x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 75 games and Mantova's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.54
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.64
1.04
Mantova xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.04 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 31W 28D 16L from 75 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 31L across 75 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 15W 15D 7L from their last 37 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 6W 11D 20L across their last 37 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.23 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frosinone vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Mantova in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 31W 28D 16L in their last 75 games (1.61 PPG), while Mantova have gone 23W 21D 31L in their last 75 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Mantova away?
Frosinone's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.62 PPG; Mantova away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Frosinone have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone won Frosinone 5-0 Mantova.
Frosinone's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Mantova?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 3, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Frosinone 5-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Mantova?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Mantova 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 57% (Mantova). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Mantova matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 57% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Frosinone and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 57% of Mantova's.
Do Frosinone and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Frosinone's recent matches and 76% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Mantova 5-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.59 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Mantova attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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