Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Carrarese travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone in Serie B (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Frosinone at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Frosinone have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Frosinone's games and 60% of Carrarese's (from Frosinone's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Carrarese and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Frosinone 2–0 Carrarese — a Frosinone win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Carrarese in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 58% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Carrarese 47%). Note also that Carrarese surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.84 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.164 / defence 0.926 | Carrarese attack 0.934 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.100. Data: built from Frosinone's last 73 games and Carrarese's last 73.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 17%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.77 | Draw 3.84 | Carrarese 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 60% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Frosinone 1.84 / Carrarese 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.164 / def 0.926 | Carrarese attack 0.934 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Carrarese kick off?
Frosinone vs Carrarese kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Frosinone vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Carrarese part of?
Frosinone vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 57% chance of winning, Carrarese a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 73 games and Carrarese's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.84
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.79
0.95
Carrarese xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
36.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.95 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 29W 28D 16L from 73 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 25D 27L across 73 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.58 PPG, Carrarese on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 14W 15D 7L from their last 36 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 4W 13D 19L across their last 36 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frosinone vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 29W 28D 16L in their last 73 games (1.58 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 21W 25D 27L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Carrarese away?
Frosinone's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.58 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Carrarese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2026, when Frosinone won Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese.
Frosinone's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Carrarese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 3, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Carrarese?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 58%, Carrarese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Frosinone) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Carrarese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Frosinone's games and 61% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Frosinone and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Frosinone's recent matches and 75% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Carrarese 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.84 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 57% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 17%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.58 PPG, Carrarese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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