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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Bari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.02 xG and Bari 0.85 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 63% | Draw 23% | Bari 14%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 50%, Bari 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights