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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Empoli run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Bari 5-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.55 xG and Bari 1.02 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 47% | Draw 30% | Bari 22%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.94 PPG, Bari 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights