Cremonese vs Mantova Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Mantova at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cremonese — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Mantova have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.50 PPG versus Mantova's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Mantova and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2026, ended Cremonese 2–0 Mantova — a Cremonese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Mantova in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 41% versus Mantova 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Mantova 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.92 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 0.970 | Mantova attack 1.064 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Data: built from Cremonese's last 11 games and Mantova's last 49.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 25% | Draw 32% | Mantova 43%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.98 | Draw 3.12 | Mantova 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 25% | Draw 32% | Mantova 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Cremonese 0.92 / Mantova 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 0.970 | Mantova attack 1.064 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mantova (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mantova xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Mantova kick off?
Cremonese vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Mantova part of?
Cremonese vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 25% chance of winning, Mantova a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Cremonese vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 11 games and Mantova's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
25%
3.98
32%
3.12
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.20
1.28
Mantova xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.28 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 12W 13D 24L from 49 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 20L across 49 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.00 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 8D 11L from their last 24 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Mantova
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 12W 13D 24L in their last 49 games (1.00 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Mantova away?
Mantova's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Mantova away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mantova in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Mantova?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: Mantova 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Mantova?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Mantova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 50% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Mantova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Mantova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cremonese's recent matches and 75% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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