🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ascoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ascoli host Cremonese at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Ascoli games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 47% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 4.00. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights