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Poisson model rates Benevento at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Benevento host Virtus Entella at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.34 xG and Virtus Entella 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Virtus Entella attack 0.825 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Virtus Entella games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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