Cosenza 2-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Cosenza take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Sudtirol at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cosenza — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Cosenza have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cosenza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sudtirol away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 0 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Cosenza 0–0 Sudtirol — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Sudtirol 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Sudtirol 27%). Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.03 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.072 / defence 0.971 | Sudtirol attack 1.043 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Data: built from Cosenza's last 42 games and Sudtirol's last 41.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.09 | Draw 2.93 | Sudtirol 2.98. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cosenza's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 40% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cosenza 1.03 / Sudtirol 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.072 / def 0.971 | Sudtirol attack 1.043 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sudtirol xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Cosenza 2 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Cosenza vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sudtirol part of?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 32% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cosenza vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.07) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 42 games and Sudtirol's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.93
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.09
1.05
Sudtirol xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.05 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 15D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (18W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 21 away games (9W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.09 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Cosenza vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 17D 9L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.48 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Cosenza's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 52%, Sudtirol 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Cosenza and 19% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sudtirol in 52%; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cosenza's recent matches and 24% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cosenza's recent games and 19% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cosenza's recent matches and 62% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Sudtirol finished level at 2-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.03 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Sudtirol attack 1.04 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Sudtirol 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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