Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Reggiana at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Reggiana have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reggiana are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Cosenza hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Reggiana and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2024, ended Cosenza 1–0 Reggiana — a Cosenza win.
The head-to-head data gives Cosenza an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Reggiana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 39% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.92 xG and Reggiana 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.721 / defence 1.125 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.083. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Cosenza's last 66 games and Reggiana's last 66.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.56 | Draw 2.89 | Reggiana 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Reggiana are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Cosenza 0.92 / Reggiana 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.721 / def 1.125 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reggiana xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Reggiana kick off?
Cosenza vs Reggiana kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Cosenza vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Reggiana part of?
Cosenza vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 28% chance of winning, Reggiana a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Cosenza vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.72) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 66 games and Reggiana's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
28%
3.56
35%
2.89
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.01
1.09
Reggiana xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.09 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 66 games, going 16W 25D 25L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.18 PPG from 66 outings (17W 27D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.11 PPG, Reggiana on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 8W 13D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Cosenza vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 25D 25L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 27D 22L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won Reggiana 0-4 Cosenza.
Cosenza's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Cosenza
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggiana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 4, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2025: Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Reggiana?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 58%, Reggiana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 39% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 30%; Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games; Reggiana in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 39% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Cosenza's recent matches and 64% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.92 xG and Reggiana 1.09 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.11 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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