Carrarese 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carrarese face Frosinone.

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Match Analysis

Carrarese host Frosinone at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Carrarese — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Carrarese at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Carrarese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Frosinone have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 0.90 PPG, Frosinone 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Carrarese 1–0 Frosinone — a Carrarese win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Frosinone in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 43% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 43% | Frosinone 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Carrarese surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.022 / defence 1.227 | Frosinone attack 0.779 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.076. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Data: built from Carrarese's last 28 games and Frosinone's last 28.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.25 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 3.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carrarese's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Carrarese 30% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 60% (last 10 away games).

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