Mantova 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Mantova, 1.10 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mantova 0W, Juve Stabia 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 57% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Juve Stabia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.13 xG and Juve Stabia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.789 / defence 1.281 | Juve Stabia attack 0.825 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.076. Mantova's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Mantova games / 28 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 34% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 40% | Juve Stabia 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 34% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Mantova 1.13 / Juve Stabia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.789 / def 1.281 | Juve Stabia attack 0.825 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Mantova vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Mantova 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Mantova vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Juve Stabia part of?
Mantova vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 34% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mantova and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Mantova and Juve Stabia in?
Mantova (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mantova's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.82x) against Mantova's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.11
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.27
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mantova and 1.14 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova's recent record stands at 6W 11D 11L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 9L across 28 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Mantova against 1.39 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 2W 6D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.14 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Juve Stabia away?
Mantova's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.46 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 38%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Mantova) and 46% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 38% of games; Juve Stabia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mantova's recent matches and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Mantova's recent games and 46% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.13 xG and Juve Stabia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Juve Stabia attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 34% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 34%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Juve Stabia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.04 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.