Parma 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cremonese at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Serie B matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.33. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 2.33 PPG versus Cremonese's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Cremonese trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Parma 33% | Cremonese 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 67% | Cremonese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.12 xG and Cremonese 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.950 / defence 0.978 | Cremonese attack 0.705 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.305. Data: 3 Parma games / 3 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Cremonese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 33% | Cremonese 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Parma 1.12 / Cremonese 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.950 / def 0.978 | Cremonese attack 0.705 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cremonese xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cremonese kick off?
Parma vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Parma 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Parma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cremonese part of?
Parma vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 39% chance of winning, Cremonese a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Cremonese in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.95) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
39%
2.60
34%
2.92
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Parma xG
Total xG
2.02
0.90
Cremonese xG
2.60
39%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Parma and 0.90 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Parma have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 2.33 PPG, Cremonese on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. Parma's scoring rate against Cremonese's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 0%.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Cremonese in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Parma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Cremonese in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Parma 33% BTTS, Cremonese 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Parma) and 33% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Cremonese in 67%; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Parma's recent matches and 0% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Parma's recent games and 33% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cremonese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Parma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Parma 1-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.12 xG and Cremonese 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Cremonese attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 67%, Cremonese 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 2.33 PPG, Cremonese 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Parma managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.