Cesena 3-4 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Padova.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cesena host Padova at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Cesena — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cesena have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Padova have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Padova have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cesena at 0.80 PPG versus Padova's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Cesena, 0 for Padova and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended Cesena 1–1 Padova — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Padova trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 60% versus Padova 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 51% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.41 xG and Padova 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.921 / defence 1.189 | Padova attack 0.729 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Padova's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Cesena's last 75 games and Padova's last 37.
Result probabilities: Cesena 47% | Draw 30% | Padova 23%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.14 | Draw 3.28 | Padova 4.39. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cesena 60% (last 10 home games) | Padova 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 47% | Draw 30% | Padova 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cesena 1.41 / Padova 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.921 / def 1.189 | Padova attack 0.729 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Cesena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Padova xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Padova FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Padova kick off?
Cesena vs Padova kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Padova?
Cesena 3 - 4 Padova.
Where is Cesena vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Padova part of?
Cesena vs Padova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 47% chance of winning, Padova a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cesena and Padova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cesena vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.92x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 75 games and Padova's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.28
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.33
0.92
Padova xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Padova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cesena and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cesena and 0.92 for Padova, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Padova's form line: 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.24 PPG, Padova on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cesena have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Padova have gone 5W 3D 10L from their last 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 0.95 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Current Season
Padova
Current Season
Cesena (Home) vs Padova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Current Season
Padova
Current Season
❓ Cesena vs Padova Form FAQs
What form are Cesena and Padova in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Padova have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Padova away?
Cesena's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.33 PPG; Padova away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Padova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Padova?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 0, Padova have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cesena and Padova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Cesena 3-4 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 67%, Padova 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cesena) and 39% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cesena vs Padova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cesena and Padova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cesena's recent matches and 39% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cesena and Padova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cesena's recent games and 39% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Padova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Cesena's recent matches and 61% of Padova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Cesena 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Cesena 3-4 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.41 xG and Padova 0.92 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Cesena beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Padova outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Padova attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 47% | Draw 30% | Padova 23%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 51%, Padova 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Padova's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.24 PPG, Padova 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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