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Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Carrarese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.21 xG and Carrarese 1.37 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Carrarese attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 29% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 37%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cesena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 43%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (47 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (47 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.43 PPG, Carrarese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights