Cesena 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this season.
Carrarese have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cesena register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Carrarese in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cesena, 1 for Carrarese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cesena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 60% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 43% | Carrarese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.21 xG and Carrarese 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.876 / defence 1.085 | Carrarese attack 1.115 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.130. Data: 47 Cesena games / 47 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 29% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 37%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Carrarese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 70% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 29% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Cesena 1.21 / Carrarese 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.876 / def 1.085 | Carrarese attack 1.115 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Carrarese xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Carrarese kick off?
Cesena vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Carrarese?
Cesena 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Cesena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Carrarese part of?
Cesena vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 29% chance of winning, Carrarese a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cesena and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Cesena 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Cesena and Carrarese in?
Cesena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.88x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (1.11x) against Cesena's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
29%
3.43
34%
2.94
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.57
1.37
Carrarese xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cesena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cesena and 1.37 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cesena come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 13D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (14W 17D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Cesena against 1.26 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cesena's home form reads 7W 9D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (2W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 14W 17D 16L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Carrarese away?
Cesena's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.43 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Cesena or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Carrarese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Carrarese?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 62%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cesena) and 48% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cesena's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cesena's recent games and 48% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.21 xG and Carrarese 1.37 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Carrarese attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 29% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 37%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cesena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 43%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (47 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (47 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.43 PPG, Carrarese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.