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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 23, as Cesena and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 0.92 xG and Bari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Bari attack 0.78 / defence 0.79, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 32% | Draw 39% | Bari 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 46%, Bari 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.32 PPG, Bari 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights