🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Cesena take on Bari.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Bari travel to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cesena have posted 5W 3D 2L at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.

Bari — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 1.10 PPG, Bari 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cesena have won 0, Bari 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Bari winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Cesena in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Bari in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 54% versus Bari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 46% | Bari 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 0.92 xG and Bari 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.951 / defence 1.048 | Bari attack 0.775 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.083. Bari's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Cesena games / 60 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cesena 32% | Draw 39% | Bari 30%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Bari 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 50% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights