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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Virtus Entella 3-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.73 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Virtus Entella attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 59% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 53%, Virtus Entella 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.07 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights