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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Virtus Entella have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Carrarese, 1.00 for Virtus Entella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading

Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 53% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 53% | Virtus Entella 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.73 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.970 / defence 1.036 | Virtus Entella attack 0.702 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.052. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Carrarese games / 15 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 59% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Virtus Entella 43% BTTS from recent games.

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