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Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 23, as Carrarese and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.75 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 46% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 23%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 50%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.23 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights