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Dominant Spezia run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Carrarese 0-4 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.84 xG and Spezia 0.60 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Spezia outscored their 0.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.86 / defence 0.67 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 36% | Draw 43% | Spezia 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 29%, Spezia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Spezia's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights