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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Carrarese take on Spezia.

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Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Spezia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Spezia in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Spezia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Spezia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 33% versus Spezia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 29% | Spezia 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.84 xG and Spezia 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.864 / defence 0.669 | Spezia attack 0.847 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.057. Spezia's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Carrarese games / 59 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 36% | Draw 43% | Spezia 22%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.78 | Draw 2.33 | Spezia 4.55. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.44 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 10% | Spezia 20% BTTS from recent games.

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