Carrarese vs Salernitana – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Salernitana 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Salernitana 3-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.03 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Salernitana attack 0.53 / defence 1.04, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 44% | Draw 36% | Salernitana 20%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 36%, Salernitana 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Salernitana's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.08 PPG, Salernitana 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights