Carrarese vs Palermo – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Palermo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.92 xG and Palermo 0.90 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.80 / defence 0.78 against Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 31% | Draw 39% | Palermo 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 33%, Palermo 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Palermo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.07 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights