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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Carrarese take on Palermo.

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Match Analysis

Carrarese host Palermo at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Carrarese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Palermo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.30 PPG versus Palermo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Palermo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 33% versus Palermo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 33% | Palermo 20%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.92 xG and Palermo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.796 / defence 0.782 | Palermo attack 1.039 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Carrarese games / 53 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 31% | Draw 39% | Palermo 30%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Palermo 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 14% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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