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Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.09 xG and Monza 0.78 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against Monza attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Monza's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Monza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights